THE Scottish budget gap could soar to £16 billion a year in the coming decades unless Holyrood ministers take action to tackle the ill-health of the country’s increasingly elderly population, according to a new report.

The independent Scottish Fiscal Commission’s (SFC) latest fiscal sustainability report looks at the long-term state of the nation’s finances.

The SFC predicted that there could be “negative average annual budget gap” of £9bn per year over the period 2030‑31 to 2074‑75 as ministers at Westminster seek to curb debt.

But that could almost double to £16bn as Scotland sees its population between 75 and 84 climb by 26 per cent and number of over-85s rocket by 95 per cent over the next 25 years. 

The report projected that these pressures could see health spending grow from 34 per cent of the Scottish budget in 2029-30 to 47 per cent by 2072-75.

Warning that the gap “means cuts to public spending or increased taxes,” commission chairman Professor Graeme Roy said: “Scotland faces a real challenge in terms of its overall fiscal sustainability because of this twin challenge of an ageing population and also an unhealthy population.

“Investing in prevention, investing in improvement in health outcomes isn’t just important for health, it is actually fundamentally important for the Scottish budget.”

SNP Health Secretary Neil Gray said the Scottish government was “cognisant of the anticipated change in Scotland’s demographics” and would continue to work with council leaders to “prioritise prevention.”

Labour health spokeswoman Dame Jackie Baillie said: “Instead of preparing our health and social care system for this demographic time bomb, the SNP instead wasted nearly £30 million on a discredited National Care Service Bill that did not pay for a single extra carer, while letting waiting lists pile up, running primary care down and slashing social care budgets.”